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77-888 Excel 2010 Expert

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77-888 exam Dumps Source : Excel 2010 Expert

Test Code : 77-888
Test Name : Excel 2010 Expert
Vendor Name : Microsoft
Q&A : 50 Real Questions

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Snowshoe Thompson Ski and Snowshoe occasion returns March 2 | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

experience Date: 

March 2, 2019 - 9:30am

by Kim Harris

The 19th annual Snowshoe Thompson Ski and Snowshoe party returns once again to the Sierra on Saturday, March 2 at 9:30 a.m. at the Lake Tahoe Golf course in South Lake Tahoe.

experience actions begin with a guided tour over the snow beginning at 9:30 a.m. with Norwegian native and longboard ski expert Nina MacLeod, who will additionally give a longboard ski demonstration. Attendees may carry their personal snowshoes and go country skis, or rent snowshoes from the Lake Tahoe Golf direction.

other activities include a ebook signing via author Frank Tortorich; a efficiency by musician and storyteller Richard Blair; a presentation by Snowshoe Thompson skilled and Alpine County resident Don Jardine on Snowshoe Thompson’s presence in Alpine County; and a video presentation with the aid of Snowshoe Thompson Chapter No. 1827 of E Clampus Vitus’ Humbug Brandon Wilding on his trip to Norway in 2018 and principally the household home of Snowshoe Thompson.

apart from entertainers and demonstrations, the Lake Tahoe historic Society will have on display a distinct Snowshoe Thompson show. different displays consist of those of the pals of Snowshoe Thompson firm, The Snowshoe Thompson Chapter No. 1827 of E Clampus Vitus, Mormon Station State ancient Park, Alpine County ancient Museum and the El Dorado County old Society.

The legendary "Mailman of the Sierra," John A. "Snowshoe" Thompson carried mail between Placerville, CA, and Genoa, NV, for two decades, twice a month throughout the winters between 1856 and 1876, on snowshoes, or what nowadays we know easily as "skis."

The nineteenth Annual Ski and Snowshoe occasion is a family-friendly experience with a purpose to take location between 9:30 a.m. and 1 p.m., with registration from 8:30 to 9 a.m.

The requested donation is $10 per person which contains all actions. There is not any cost for activities for children below 12 years of age. A bag lunch can also be reserved for attendees for an further $10. A no-host bar will also be obtainable.

To RSVP most importantly for bag lunch reservations and for extra tips, please contact Nina at 530-573-8940 or through email to norskenina@sbcglobal.net.

The Lake Tahoe Golf path is observed at 2500 Emerald Bay highway, South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150.

This annual experience is offered with the aid of the Genoa, NV-based friends of Snowshoe Thompson firm who are once again partnering with the Lake Tahoe historical Society and the Lake Tahoe Golf course.


Microsoft and Certiport announce 2015 Microsoft workplace specialist World Championship | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

REDMOND, Wash., and SALT LAKE metropolis — Nov. 18, 2014 — Microsoft Corp. and Certiport Inc., a Pearson VUE business, on Monday announced the dates for the 2015 Microsoft workplace expert (MOS) World Championship, the most established expertise skills competition for Microsoft office due to the fact that its inception in 2002. The established Microsoft office competition is the only one endorsed through Microsoft, presenting a platform for college kids to exhibit their knowledgeable advantage the usage of Microsoft workplace tools and benefit the higher hand in these days’s competitive educational and expert industry.

The 2015 contest marks the introduction of Microsoft workplace specialist 2013 tests to the competition. Certiport will award better scholarship prizes for 2013 exam competitors tracks. In all, college students will compete in Microsoft notice, Excel and PowerPoint tracks for workplace 2010 and 2013.

“Our workplace community is delighted to see the passion and dedication of the younger rivals within the MOS World Championship,” noted John Case, company vice president for Microsoft workplace. “they could basically put the office suite through its paces, and those capabilities will serve them neatly in whatever thing profession they ultimately pursue.”

The championship, coming into its thirteenth year, will see countries from everywhere host local competitions to check country and regional representatives in line with exam ratings and completion instances. The closing date for all qualifying exams is June 15, 2015. selected finalists will then compete within the 2015 MOS World Championship held in Dallas, Texas, Aug. 9–12, 2015.

“We are expecting continued growth during this high-stakes competition — closing yr we had just about 750,000 exam entries, and greater than forty countries participated within the MOS World Championship,” said Bob Whelan, president and CEO for Pearson VUE. “The event is greater than enjoyable and prizes; Microsoft office professional certification prepares students for future success in college and careers. within the conclusion any one who earns certification is a winner with a useful credential on their resume to show their abilities.”

To take part, students ages 13 to 22 should put up a passing score on the MOS notice 2013, Excel 2013, PowerPoint 2013, be aware 2010, Excel 2010 or PowerPoint 2010 exams and attend an authorized, authorized getting to know institution. Regional participation and availability varies via nation. extra details can also be acquired via contacting a native Certiport answer issuer or contacting Certiport at MOSchampionship@pearson.com. The Microsoft workplace professional certification is the best reliable Microsoft-recognized certification for Microsoft workplace globally.

This year the MOS World Championship welcomes deeper collaboration with Microsoft IT Academies (ITAs). Many collaborating students put together for the competitors using the curriculum and lesson planning substances provided via their college by way of the Microsoft ITA software. This program gives faculties with flexible curriculum, customizable lesson plans and professional construction opportunities for teachers.

“We’re in fact comfortable to participate in the 2015 MOS World Championship and see the exquisite things students do with Microsoft workplace,” talked about Alison Cunard, everyday manager of Microsoft learning Experiences, which manages Microsoft ITA. “We suppose the merits of the ITA software combined with a world competitors lift the bar for college students to have fun while studying the 21st century technology talents they need for success.”

participants who outperform their peers to make the final circular of the realm Championship frequently have perfect or close-perfect exam ratings and completion times smartly below the dispensed examination time. The correct three winners in every class will acquire scholarship prizes for $5,000, $2,500 and $1,000, respectively.

A video highlighting closing 12 months’s winners and their worldwide press coverage can also be found right here, and the 2015 MOS World Championship promo video can also be found here.

About Certiport

Certiport, a Pearson VUE company, is the leading issuer of certification exam building, start and application management services delivered through an expansive community of over 12,000 Certiport authorized checking out facilities worldwide. Certiport manages a sophisticated portfolio of leading certification programs including: the professional Microsoft workplace specialist certification software, the Microsoft expertise associate certification software, the Microsoft certified Educator program, the Adobe® licensed associate certification program, the HP permitted Technical associate, the Autodesk certified person certification software, the Intuit QuickBooks certified consumer certification program, and the IC3 Digital Literacy certification. Certiport reliably offers over three million assessments every year during the secondary, put up-secondary, personnel, and company expertise markets in additional than 148 international locations and 27 languages worldwide. For more suggestions, please talk over with http://www.certiport.com or follow Certiport on Twitter at www.twitter.com/certiport.

About Microsoft

situated in 1975, Microsoft (Nasdaq “MSFT”) is the worldwide leader in software, services, gadgets and solutions that aid individuals and businesses understand their full abilities.

“Certiport” and “IC3” are registered logos of Certiport Inc. in the u.s. and other countries.

notice to editors: For extra assistance, information and perspectives from Microsoft, please discuss with the Microsoft information center at http://news.microsoft.com. internet hyperlinks, phone numbers and titles have been relevant at time of booklet, but may also have changed. For extra counsel, journalists and analysts may additionally contact Microsoft’s swift Response crew or different appropriate contacts listed at https://news.microsoft.com/microsoft-public-family members-contacts.


Forcing the regular in Regression to Zero: knowing Excel's LINEST() Error | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

one of the vital alternate options in LINEST(), obtainable as its third argument, is to force the consistent in the regression equation to a value of zero. no matter if to do so, even with the application in use, has been a contentious area within the literature on regression analysis for decades. This paper touches handiest calmly on the query of even if it is applicable to adopt the alternative: There are neatly reasoned arguments on both sides of the problem. in its place, Excel skilled Conrad Carlberg, author of Predictive Analytics: Microsoft Excel, specializes in a significant error within the LINEST() results when the choice is selected. The error changed into now not corrected unless Excel 2003, and it is still in Excel 2010, within the values of R2 that can also be displayed with chart trendlines. From the author of 

one of the vital options that has all the time been attainable in Excel's LINEST() worksheet feature is the const argument, short for constant. The function's syntax is:

=LINEST(Y values, X values, const, stats)

where:

  • Y values represents the latitude that carries the result variable (or the variable it is to be predicted via the regression equation).
  • X values represents the latitude that includes the variable or variables that are used as predictors.
  • const is both genuine or FALSE, and indicates no matter if LINEST() should consist of a continuing (also known as an intercept) within the equation, or should still leave out the steady. If const is true or unnoticed, the regular is calculated and included. If const is false, the steady is omitted from the equation.
  • stats, if genuine, tells LINEST() to consist of records which are helpful in evaluating the satisfactory of the regression equation as a means of gauging the strength of the connection between the Y values and the X values.
  • setting the const argument to FALSE can effectively have most important implications for the character of the results that LINEST() returns. And there is a true query of even if the const argument is a effective choice in any respect. actually, the question is not restricted to LINEST() and Excel. It extends to the complete area of regression analysis, despite the platform used to perform the regression.

    Some credible practitioners trust that or not it's important to force the constant to zero in definite cases, usually within the context of regression discontinuity designs.

    Others, including myself, agree with that if setting the consistent to zero seems to be a valuable and informative alternative, then linear regression itself is regularly the inaccurate mannequin for the data.

    The Excel 2003 through 2010 types

    determine 1 suggests an example of the change between LINEST() outcomes when the constant is calculated continuously, and when it is forced to equal zero.

    determine 1 LINEST() returns the same results, no matter if you use Excel 2003 or Excel 2010.

    In figure 1, both sets of consequences are in response to the equal underlying facts set, with the Y values in A2:A21 and the X values in B2:D21. the first set of results in F3:I7 is according to a relentless calculated invariably (const = actual). The second set of effects in F10:I14 is based on a constant that is forced to equal zero (const = FALSE).

    note that no longer a single value in the consequences is an identical when the regular is pressured to zero as when the steady is calculated at all times.

    Basing the Deviations on the potential

    determine 2 starts off to display how this comes about.

    determine 2 The deviations are based on the ability.

    In determine 2, cells G15:H15 contain the sums of squares for the regression and the residual, respectively. they're according to the anticipated Y values, in L21:L40, and the deviations of the anticipated values from the actuals, in M21:LM40.

    The sums of squares are calculated by means of skill of the DEVSQ() function, which subtracts every cost in the argument's latitude from the imply of those values, squares the outcome, and sums the squares.

    The price in cell G13, 0.595, is the R2 for the regression. One effective technique to calculate that determine (and a advantageous strategy to believe of it) is:

    =G15/(G15+H15)

    it's, R2 is the ratio of the sum of squares regression to the whole sum of squares of the Y values. The effect, 0.595, states that 59.5% of the variability within the Y values is attributable to variability in the composite of the X values.

    observe in determine 2 that the information suggested in G11:J15 are just like those said in G3:J7 (except that LINEST() studies the regression coefficients and their regular errors in the reverse of worksheet order). the previous are calculated using Excel's matrix services; the latter are calculated the usage of the LINEST feature.

    additionally word in determine 2 that the correlation between the genuine and the anticipated Y values is given in mobile H22. it is 0.772. The square of that correlation, in cellphone H23, is 0.595—that is of course R2, the equal cost that you simply get by way of calculating the ratio of the sum of squares regression to the entire sum of squares.

    there's nothing magical about any of this. it be all as is anticipated in line with the arithmetic underlying regression evaluation.

    altering the Deviation groundwork to Zero

    Now determine the same form of evaluation shown in figure 3.

    figure 3 The deviations are situated on zero.

    note the values for the sum of squares regression and the sum of squares residual in figure three. they're each an awful lot better than the sums of squares mentioned in determine 2. The intent is that the deviations which are squared and summed in figure 3 are the differences between the values and zero, no longer between the values and their mean.

    This change in the nature of the deviations at all times increases the whole sum of squares. (due to the fact that here is so, see Statistical evaluation: Microsoft Excel 2010, Que, 2011, Chapter 2.)

    The exchange from centering the anticipated values on their imply, and the mistakes in prediction on their mean, also alterations the relative size of the sums of squares. it may happen that the sum of squares regression receives larger relative to the sum of squares residual, and the outcomes is to increase the apparent cost of R2. the use of the sums of squares shown in figure 2 and figure 3, for instance:

    figure 2:

    12870.037 / (12870.037 + 8742.913) = .595 

    (compare with cells G5 and G13.)

    determine three:

    55879.198 / (55879.198 + 12875.802) = .813

    (compare with cells G5 and G13.)

    So the suppression of the steady in determine three has resulted in a rise in the R2 from .595 to .813, and that's the reason a substantial enhance. but does it in fact imply that the regression equation it is back in determine 3 is more correct than the one again in figure 2? in spite of everything, the square root of R2 is the dissimilar correlation between the exact Y values and the composite, anticipated Y values. The greater that correlation, the greater correct the prediction.

    How the Deviations have an effect on the R2

    we can test that accuracy by using calculating the correlations, squaring them, and evaluating the results to the values for R2 which are lower back under the two circumstances for the constant: current and absent.

    appear first once more at determine 2. There, the dissimilar R is calculated at .772, and the dissimilar R2 is calculated at .595 (cells H22 and H23). The value of .595 has the same opinion with the cost returned through LINEST() in phone G5, and by way of the ratio of the sums of squares in mobilephone G13.

    Now return to determine 3. There, the dissimilar R is calculated at .684, and the distinctive R2 is calculated at .468 (cells H22 and H23). but the price of .468 doesn't accept as true with the value back by LINEST() in telephone G5, and with the aid of the ratio of the sums of squares in cellphone G13.

    In sum, working LINEST() on the information proven in determine 2 and determine three has these outcomes on the apparent accuracy of the predictions:

  • The R2 said by means of LINEST() devoid of the steady is better than that stated by way of LINEST() with the regular.
  • The accuracy of the regression equation when evaluated with the aid of ability of the correlation between the actual Y values and the predicted Y values is lower when the regression equation omits the consistent.
  • here's an inconsistency, even an apparent contradiction. viewed as a ratio of sums of squares, R2 is greater without the consistent. considered as the rectangular of the correlation between the exact and predicted Y values, R2 is reduce with out the steady.

    The regular and the Deviations

    Of course, the issue is as a result of the undeniable fact that in omitting the consistent, we are redefining what's intended with the aid of the time period "sum of squares." subsequently, we're dismembering the that means of the R2.

    in case you include the regular, the deviations are the modifications between the followed values and their suggest—this is what "least squares" is all about. if you leave out the steady, the deviations are the ameliorations between the observed values and 0—it truly is what "regression without the consistent" is all about.

    If the estimated values happen to be often farther from zero than from their personal suggest, then the sum of squares regression may be inflated as in comparison to regression with the constant. in that case, the R2 will are typically superior devoid of the steady within the regression equation than it is with the constant.

    A terrible R2?

    finally, believe you might be nonetheless using a edition of Excel via Excel 2002, and you've got used LINEST(), without the steady, on a knowledge set such because the one proven in determine four.

    figure four A bad R2 is viable simplest if somebody has made a mistake.

    Even the concept of a negative R2 is ridiculous. backyard the realm of imaginary numbers, the square of a host cannot be poor, and usual least squares evaluation does not involve imaginary numbers. How does the R2 value of -0.09122 in mobilephone F4 of determine 4 get there?

    For that count number, how does Excel 2002 come up with a negative sum of squares regression and a negative F ratio (cells F6 and F5 respectively in determine four)? If the square of a number should be positive, then the sum of squared numbers should even be positive. And an F ratio is the ratio of two variances. A variance is an ordinary of squared deviations, and therefore need to even be high quality—and the ratio of two positive numbers must also be nice.

    how to Get a bad R2

    The answer is poorly counseled coding. don't forget that, when the constant is calculated always, the total sum of squares of the specific Y values equals the entire of the sum of squares regression and the sum of squares residual. as an example, in figure 2, the full sum of squares is shown in cellphone A23 at 21612.950. it is returned by means of Excel's DEVSQ() feature, which sums the squared deviations of every price from the imply of the values.

    also in figure 2, the sum of squares regression and the sum of squares residual are proven in cells G15:H15. the total of these two figures is 21612.950: the value of the entire sum of squares in mobile A23.

    hence, one way to calculate the sum of squares regression is to subtract the sum of squares residual from the whole sum of squares. an extra system, of direction, is to calculate the sum of squares regression directly on the estimated values. but when you are writing the underlying code in, say, C, or not it's an awful lot faster to get the sum of squares regression by means of subtraction than by using doing the mathematics from scratch on the predicted values.

    When the regular is compelled to zero, the sum of squares residual that's back in all versions of Excel equals the outcome of pointing SUMSQ(), not DEVSQ(), on the residual values. here's fully proper, due to the fact that you want to force the constant to zero.

    The sum of squares residual using the usual calculation of the constant is as follows:

    Residual = precise – anticipated

    that is, locate every of N residual values, which is the actual Y price much less the estimated Y value (Ŷ). Subtract the suggest of the residuals () from each and every residual, rectangular the difference, and sum the squared changes. Excel's DEVSQ() function does precisely this.

    The sum of squares residual forcing the constant to zero is as follows:

    or, more effectively:

    Excel's SUMSQ() function does exactly this.

    the error, Corrected—in part

    Now, what LINEST() did in Excel edition 2002 (and past) was to make use of the equivalent of SUMSQ() to get the sum of squares residual, but the equal of DEVSQ() to get the total sum of squares. in case you add SUMSQ(expected values) to SUMSQ(Residual values), you get SUMSQ(actual values).

    however only within the condition the place the mean of the actual values is zero can SUMSQ(estimated values) plus SUMSQ(Residual values) equal DEVSQ(specific values).

    The difficulty has been corrected in Excel 2003 and subsequent versions. but as late as Excel 2010, the difficulty lives on in Excel charts. in case you add a linear trendline to a chart, call for it to force the regular to zero, and reveal the R2 cost on the chart, it may well nevertheless show up as a negative number. See determine 5.

    determine 5 A terrible R2 can still appear with a chart's trendline.

    notice in figure 5 that although Excel 2010 changed into used to produce the chart, the linear trendline's homes consist of a bad R2 price. (The equation would be suitable, though, in case you selected to exhibit it together with R2.)

    Conclusion

    This sequence of papers on how Microsoft has implemented LINEST() concludes with a discussion of Microsoft's staggering choice related to the way to handle severe multicollinearity within the X variables.


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    TRAVEL NEWS for our TAPinto Reader Families: 

    Holmdel, NJ: On Saturday, February 23, from 11 a.m.– 3 p.m. Dearborn Market's indoor garden center was transformed into a festive travel destination for the public to enjoy browsing for their next vacation destination.

    The award winning, time-tested Excel Travel - celebrating 25 years of success, featured more than 30 of their favorite vacation vendors, operators and owners of top-notch travel destinations. These experts  provided first-hand information about a wide variety of travel destinations!

    Sign Up for E-News

    The possibilities were limitless including everything from an exotic safari, a fun-filled, family cruise, a romantic getaway or simply a resort within a day’s drive, it was all on display at the Vacation Expo. As shoppers entered the warm garden center they heard the sounds of Tropical Island Music performed by local artist Mario Marcal.

    Excel Travel thought of everything for the traveler's convenience; Green Leaf Pet Resort was on hand to give traveler's information on how to 'give your dog the best vacation while you are on vacation'.... Green Leaf Pet Resort Hotel has 35,000 square feet of tail wagging luxury, a state of the art pet care facility with salt water aquatic pools for your dog, and so much more.  All Occasion Limousine was on hand to plan your car service from your doorstep to the airport, owner operated friendly service and a wide selection of well maintained vehicles including SUV's for comfortable family transports.

    The Monmouth County Clerk's office had a friendly staffed booth to guide local residents on passport procedures and forms as well as providing general information from the office of Monmouth County Clerk Christine Giordano Hanlon, Esq. 

    Even your vacation tan solution was on site with Travel Tanz, the first mobile spray tanning company in Monmouth County, Travel Tanz representative Anna commented, "We bring the tan to the convenience of your home with our pop up spray booth and our all natural organic spray tan products, the official airbrush tan of ABC's Dancing with the Stars! We leave you with that natural healthy bronze tan, no orange and no streaks!"

    Talk about vacation information! An endless variety of colorful brochures and giveaways were available for the collecting, but even better the experts were on hand to answer questions and book vacations on the spot, saving the customers hundreds of dollars!

    If you booked a trip using Excel Travel, you received $100 off (or shipboard credit) and vacation packages or cruise bookings. Attendees at this year’s event were able to explore a trip to Asia on land or by sea, or discover a romantic wedding and honeymoon destination on a Caribbean island, or plan a once-in-a-lifetime African safari, or an action-packed, family ski trip to the Rockies, or an over-the-top luxurious river cruise for two, or simply a girls’ indulgent spa week getaway. The options were limitless!

     “Official tour company representatives were present and provided excellent resources for ensuring memorable journeys,” says travel expert Ted Friedli, owner of Excel Travel, Long Branch, and Founder of Kick Cancer Overboard Foundation providing free cruises to people affected by cancer. “We  personally selected our favorites for this event.”  There were unusual travel vendors like 

    No matter what your idea of a dream vacation is, it was easy planning at the Vacation Expo. There was an endless variety of journeys available with the lowest prices possible (even compared to Expedia, Travelocity, etc.)

    At Vacation Expo the only limit to your next adventure was your imagination. Here is just a sampling of tour representatives who were present: Beaches and Sandals Resorts - Crystal Cruises – Celtic Tours World Tours – Club Med – Elegant Hotels – Holland America Line -  Kick Cancer Overboard - Jamaica Tourist Board - Viking River Cruises - Micato Safaris - Cayman Islands –- AMA Waterways - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines – MSC Cruises, and many more.

    Don't worry if you missed the expo visit: NJVACATIONEXPO.COM

    You can call Excel Travel, at (800) 392-3588 or  (732) 571-1960 or visit: www.exceltravel.com 

    For more information on Dearborn Market, visit www.dearbornmarket.com 

    More information from Excel Travel owner Ted Friedli taken from a previous TAPintoRedBank interview: 

    With over twenty-five years in the business and a staff of travel counselors whose average experience is twenty-three years,  Friedli kicked off by stating his four reasons (with comments), on why you should use a travel agency for booking your next vacation.

    1. Best Price.  In answering the question “I can get better pricing online,” Friedli countered, “Have you ever seen any proof that you can better prices online?  I’ve never been able to find a survey that confirms that you can get lower prices on Expedia, Travelocity or Travel Zoom compared from what you get from a travel agency.  Never.”

    2. Expert Advice. Friedli talked about the inside knowledge his travel counselors have, one even having gone to Disneyland 39 times.  “Yes, you can do it online.  When we do it for you, you get free expert advice.  You pay for the services of a travel agency whether you use a travel agency or not.  We’ve had a customer come in with their Expedia print-out for a cruise.  We pointed out that this is a great cruise with a great cabin.  We can get you the same price, but for $50 more, you can get a cabin that’s not above the nightclub so you can actually sleep at night.” 

    3. 24/7 Emergency Service. In discussing airline cancellations or delays, “If there is a problem with your flight, we can help bail you out.  We know what airlines can and cannot do.”   If warranted, Excel Travel can get you compensated.

    4. Shift the Risk.  “People make mistakes when they book their own vacation.  You’d be surprised how many people book flights to Naples, Florida instead of Naples, Italy.” 

    “It’s not about cheaper.  You can always get cheaper, it’s about getting value,” said Friedli. 

    Friedli also mentioned that in many countries, passports must be valid for three or six months past the return date of their trip.

    Excel Travel knows the tricks of the trade in saving money.  “If you’re traveling for a long weekend getaway, book between Saturday and Tuesday.  If you’re planning a roundtrip, always price two, one-way tickets.  It’s not always less expensive, but always worth a try, especially for international flights.  If you have a family of five, you’ll get the lowest online price for all five tickets.  If you price one ticket at time, savings could be significantly more.”

    Ted Friedli gives a lot of himself.  In 2010, Friedli founded Kick Cancer Overboard, Inc., a nonprofit organization that has given away almost 300 free cruises to people whose lives have been affected by cancer.  

    To read a heartwarming previous TAPintoRed Bank story on one these cruise giveaways, click HERE.

    Do you do your own plumbing, electrical work or taxes? 

    More than likely not.  You want to deal with professionals.  You want to deal with Excel Travel.

    Remember: The Internet is for looking, Excel Travel is for booking!


    Excel has tons of amazing hacks and tricks, this course can give you an expert-level understanding | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

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    Forcing the Constant in Regression to Zero: Understanding Excel's LINEST() Error | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    One of the options in LINEST(), available as its third argument, is to force the constant in the regression equation to a value of zero. Whether to do so, regardless of the software in use, has been a contentious subject in the literature on regression analysis for decades. This paper touches only lightly on the question of whether it is appropriate to adopt the option: There are well reasoned arguments on each side of the issue. Instead, Excel expert Conrad Carlberg, author of Predictive Analytics: Microsoft Excel, focuses on a serious error in the LINEST() results when the option is selected. The error was not corrected until Excel 2003, and it remains in Excel 2010, in the values of R2 that can be displayed with chart trendlines. From the author of 

    One of the options that has always been available in Excel's LINEST() worksheet function is the const argument, short for constant. The function's syntax is:

    =LINEST(Y values, X values, const, stats)

    where:

  • Y values represents the range that contains the outcome variable (or the variable that is to be predicted by the regression equation).
  • X values represents the range that contains the variable or variables that are used as predictors.
  • const is either TRUE or FALSE, and indicates whether LINEST() should include a constant (also called an intercept) in the equation, or should omit the constant. If const is TRUE or omitted, the constant is calculated and included. If const is FALSE, the constant is omitted from the equation.
  • stats, if TRUE, tells LINEST() to include statistics that are helpful in evaluating the quality of the regression equation as a means of gauging the strength of the relationship between the Y values and the X values.
  • Setting the const argument to FALSE can easily have major implications for the nature of the results that LINEST() returns. And there is a real question of whether the const argument is a useful option at all. In fact, the question is not limited to LINEST() and Excel. It extends to the whole area of regression analysis, regardless of the platform used to carry out the regression.

    Some credible practitioners believe that it's important to force the constant to zero in certain situations, usually in the context of regression discontinuity designs.

    Others, including myself, believe that if setting the constant to zero appears to be a useful and informative option, then linear regression itself is often the wrong model for the data.

    The Excel 2003 Through 2010 Versions

    Figure 1 shows an example of the difference between LINEST() results when the constant is calculated normally, and when it is forced to equal zero.

    Figure 1 LINEST() returns the same results, whether you use Excel 2003 or Excel 2010.

    In Figure 1, the two sets of results are based on the same underlying data set, with the Y values in A2:A21 and the X values in B2:D21. The first set of results in F3:I7 is based on a constant calculated normally (const = TRUE). The second set of results in F10:I14 is based on a constant that is forced to equal zero (const = FALSE).

    Notice that not a single value in the results is the same when the constant is forced to zero as when the constant is calculated normally.

    Basing the Deviations on the Means

    Figure 2 begins to demonstrate how this comes about.

    Figure 2 The deviations are centered on the means.

    In Figure 2, cells G15:H15 contain the sums of squares for the regression and the residual, respectively. They are based on the predicted Y values, in L21:L40, and the deviations of the predicted values from the actuals, in M21:LM40.

    The sums of squares are calculated by means of the DEVSQ() function, which subtracts every value in the argument's range from the mean of those values, squares the result, and sums the squares.

    The value in cell G13, 0.595, is the R2 for the regression. One useful way to calculate that figure (and a useful way to think of it) is:

    =G15/(G15+H15)

    That is, R2 is the ratio of the sum of squares regression to the total sum of squares of the Y values. The result, 0.595, states that 59.5% of the variability in the Y values is attributable to variability in the composite of the X values.

    Notice in Figure 2 that the statistics reported in G11:J15 are identical to those reported in G3:J7 (except that LINEST() reports the regression coefficients and their standard errors in the reverse of worksheet order). The former are calculated using Excel's matrix functions; the latter are calculated using the LINEST function.

    Also notice in Figure 2 that the correlation between the actual and the predicted Y values is given in cell H22. It is 0.772. The square of that correlation, in cell H23, is 0.595—that is of course R2, the same value that you get by calculating the ratio of the sum of squares regression to the total sum of squares.

    There's nothing magical about any of this. It's all as is expected according to the mathematics underlying regression analysis.

    Changing the Deviation Basis to Zero

    Now examine the same sort of analysis shown in Figure 3.

    Figure 3 The deviations are centered on zero.

    Notice the values for the sum of squares regression and the sum of squares residual in Figure 3. They are both much larger than the sums of squares reported in Figure 2. The reason is that the deviations that are squared and summed in Figure 3 are the differences between the values and zero, not between the values and their mean.

    This change in the nature of the deviations always increases the total sum of squares. (For the reason that this is so, see Statistical Analysis: Microsoft Excel 2010, Que, 2011, Chapter 2.)

    The change from centering the predicted values on their mean, and the errors in prediction on their mean, also changes the relative size of the sums of squares. It can happen that the sum of squares regression gets larger relative to the sum of squares residual, and the result is to increase the apparent value of R2. Using the sums of squares shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, for example:

    Figure 2:

    12870.037 / (12870.037 + 8742.913) = .595 

    (Compare with cells G5 and G13.)

    Figure 3:

    55879.198 / (55879.198 + 12875.802) = .813

    (Compare with cells G5 and G13.)

    So the suppression of the constant in Figure 3 has resulted in an increase in the R2 from .595 to .813, and that's a substantial increase. But does it really mean that the regression equation that's returned in Figure 3 is more accurate than the one returned in Figure 2? After all, the square root of R2 is the multiple correlation between the actual Y values and the composite, predicted Y values. The higher that correlation, the more accurate the prediction.

    How the Deviations Affect the R2

    We can test that accuracy by calculating the correlations, squaring them, and comparing the results to the values for R2 that are returned under the two conditions for the constant: present and absent.

    Look first again at Figure 2. There, the multiple R is calculated at .772, and the multiple R2 is calculated at .595 (cells H22 and H23). The value of .595 agrees with the value returned by LINEST() in cell G5, and by the ratio of the sums of squares in cell G13.

    Now return to Figure 3. There, the multiple R is calculated at .684, and the multiple R2 is calculated at .468 (cells H22 and H23). But the value of .468 does not agree with the value returned by LINEST() in cell G5, and by the ratio of the sums of squares in cell G13.

    In sum, running LINEST() on the data shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3 has these effects on the apparent accuracy of the predictions:

  • The R2 reported by LINEST() without the constant is higher than that reported by LINEST() with the constant.
  • The accuracy of the regression equation when evaluated by means of the correlation between the actual Y values and the predicted Y values is lower when the regression equation omits the constant.
  • This is an inconsistency, even an apparent contradiction. Regarded as a ratio of sums of squares, R2 is higher without the constant. Regarded as the square of the correlation between the actual and predicted Y values, R2 is lower without the constant.

    The Constant and the Deviations

    Of course, the problem is due to the fact that in omitting the constant, we are redefining what's meant by the term "sum of squares." As a result, we're dismembering the meaning of the R2.

    When you include the constant, the deviations are the differences between the observed values and their mean—that's what "least squares" is all about. When you omit the constant, the deviations are the differences between the observed values and zero—that's what "regression without the constant" is all about.

    If the predicted values happen to be generally farther from zero than from their own mean, then the sum of squares regression will be inflated as compared to regression with the constant. In that case, the R2 will tend to be greater without the constant in the regression equation than it is with the constant.

    A Negative R2?

    Finally, suppose you're still using a version of Excel through Excel 2002, and you have used LINEST(), without the constant, on a data set such as the one shown in Figure 4.

    Figure 4 A negative R2 is possible only if someone has made a mistake.

    Even the idea of a negative R2 is ridiculous. Outside the realm of imaginary numbers, the square of a number cannot be negative, and ordinary least squares analysis does not involve imaginary numbers. How does the R2 value of -0.09122 in cell F4 of Figure 4 get there?

    For that matter, how does Excel 2002 come up with a negative sum of squares regression and a negative F ratio (cells F6 and F5 respectively in Figure 4)? If the square of a number must be positive, then the sum of squared numbers must also be positive. And an F ratio is the ratio of two variances. A variance is an average of squared deviations, and therefore must also be positive—and the ratio of two positive numbers must also be positive.

    How to Get a Negative R2

    The answer is poorly informed coding. Recall that, when the constant is calculated normally, the total sum of squares of the actual Y values equals the total of the sum of squares regression and the sum of squares residual. For example, in Figure 2, the total sum of squares is shown in cell A23 at 21612.950. It is returned by Excel's DEVSQ() function, which sums the squared deviations of each value from the mean of the values.

    Also in Figure 2, the sum of squares regression and the sum of squares residual are shown in cells G15:H15. The total of those two figures is 21612.950: the value of the total sum of squares in cell A23.

    Therefore, one way to calculate the sum of squares regression is to subtract the sum of squares residual from the total sum of squares. Another method, of course, is to calculate the sum of squares regression directly on the predicted values. But if you're writing the underlying code in, say, C, it's much quicker to get the sum of squares regression by subtraction than by doing the math from scratch on the predicted values.

    When the constant is forced to zero, the sum of squares residual that's returned in all versions of Excel equals the result of pointing SUMSQ(), not DEVSQ(), at the residual values. This is entirely correct, given that you want to force the constant to zero.

    The sum of squares residual using the normal calculation of the constant is as follows:

    Residual = Actual – Predicted

    That is, find each of N residual values, which is the actual Y value less the predicted Y value (Ŷ). Subtract the mean of the residuals () from each residual, square the difference, and sum the squared differences. Excel's DEVSQ() function does precisely this.

    The sum of squares residual forcing the constant to zero is as follows:

    or, more simply:

    Excel's SUMSQ() function does precisely this.

    The Mistake, Corrected—In Part

    Now, what LINEST() did in Excel version 2002 (and earlier) was to use the equivalent of SUMSQ() to get the sum of squares residual, but the equivalent of DEVSQ() to get the total sum of squares. If you add SUMSQ(Predicted values) to SUMSQ(Residual values), you get SUMSQ(Actual values).

    But only in the situation where the mean of the actual values is zero can SUMSQ(Predicted values) plus SUMSQ(Residual values) equal DEVSQ(Actual values).

    The problem has been corrected in Excel 2003 and subsequent versions. But as late as Excel 2010, the problem lives on in Excel charts. If you add a linear trendline to a chart, call for it to force the constant to zero, and display the R2 value on the chart, it can still show up as a negative number. See Figure 5.

    Figure 5 A negative R2 can still appear with a chart's trendline.

    Notice in Figure 5 that although Excel 2010 was used to produce the chart, the linear trendline's properties include a negative R2 value. (The equation would be correct, though, if you chose to show it along with R2.)

    Conclusion

    This series of papers on how Microsoft has implemented LINEST() concludes with a discussion of Microsoft's extraordinary decision regarding how to handle extreme multicollinearity in the X variables.



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    References :


    Issu : https://issuu.com/trutrainers/docs/77-888
    Scribd : https://www.scribd.com/document/354059999/Pass4sure-77-888-Excel-2010-Expert-exam-braindumps-with-real-questions-and-practice-software
    Dropmark : http://killexams.dropmark.com/367904/11584766
    Wordpress : http://wp.me/p7SJ6L-OM
    Dropmark-Text : http://killexams.dropmark.com/367904/12117121
    Blogspot : http://killexams-braindumps.blogspot.com/2017/11/microsoft-77-888-dumps-and-practice.html
    RSS Feed : http://feeds.feedburner.com/NeverMissThese77-888QuestionsBeforeYouGoForTest
    weSRCH : https://www.wesrch.com/business/prpdfBU1HWO000VQLQ
    Calameo : http://en.calameo.com/books/0049235265d284b692567
    publitas.com : https://view.publitas.com/trutrainers-inc/people-used-these-microsoft-dumps-to-get-100-marks-4
    Box.net : https://app.box.com/s/ho2k7hcs9pnsk360oko7axgqfqxkjtow
    zoho.com : https://docs.zoho.com/file/5psibbaab38fa00914a9bb8a32059b0efcfc1






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